As the autumnal equinox passed on September 22, temperatures in the northern hemisphere are expected to decline. Current forecasts suggest that winter in India may be colder than usual due to developing La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The El Nino-La Nina phenomena are monitored in the Nino 3.4 region of the Pacific. Recent data indicates that the temperature deviation in this area has reached -0.5°C, a threshold that hints at the potential development of La Nina. However, a sustained deviation over several months is necessary to confirm this phenomenon.
Forecasts from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) predict a 60% probability of La Nina conditions from October to December, increasing to 62% for November-January. These conditions could lead to a colder winter as the sea surface temperatures influence air temperatures.
While the IRI model-based forecast provides an outlook, it is essential to approach it with caution due to inherent biases in model predictions. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has also issued a forecast indicating a higher likelihood of La Nina, though its impact will depend on the strength of the event. Continuous monitoring of the Nino 3.4 region is advised to gauge the winter's severity.