January 27, 2025, China – A record increase in clean energy generation has kept China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions below previous levels during the last ten months of 2024. Despite this, an estimated 0.8% year-on-year growth in CO2 output indicates emissions have not declined overall.
Key findings include:
China's power demand surged by 6.8% in 2024, while GDP expanded by 5%.
Clean energy generation rose by over 500 terawatt hours (TWh), surpassing Germany's total generation in 2023.
Solar power accounted for half of the clean energy increase, with 277 GW of solar and 79 GW of wind capacity added.
Industrial emissions rose due to a 10% increase in gas demand and a 3% rise in oil consumption in Q4 2024.
Cement production fell by 6% year-on-year, continuing a decline since 2020.
Looking ahead, China is set to add approximately 265 GW of solar and 110-120 GW of wind capacity by the end of 2025. This new capacity is expected to generate over 600 TWh annually, contingent on its integration into the electricity system without significant curtailment.
The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced a plan to integrate over 200 GW of new wind and solar power into the grid annually from 2025 to 2027, indicating government support for ongoing clean energy growth.
Future emissions trajectories will depend on policy decisions made in 2025, particularly regarding commitments under the Paris Agreement and the next five-year plan.