The latest long-term weather forecast for spring, released by Severe Weather Europe, predicts a warmer season with average precipitation across Europe, including Croatia and neighboring regions.
The dominant weather pattern for this season indicates high-pressure systems over much of the continent, while low-pressure systems are expected to retreat further north.
Spring, encompassing March, April, and May, marks the transition from winter to summer and brings dynamic weather patterns. Although global phenomena such as La Niña and the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex may influence weather conditions, their specific impact on the region is expected to remain moderate.
The winter season has brought higher pressures to the North Atlantic and Northern Europe, while low-pressure areas have affected the Mediterranean region. These conditions resulted in lower temperatures in Western Europe and average to drier precipitation in parts of Southern and Central Europe, including the Balkans.
A strong stratospheric polar vortex, which has characterized this winter, is expected to remain active throughout spring, contributing to stable jet stream flow. This may lead to milder conditions in the region, while colder air remains trapped in polar areas.
Both forecasting models, ECMWF and UKMO, predict above-average temperatures for much of Europe, including Croatia. The dominance of high pressure suggests mild and stable weather conditions in the early part of the season, with occasional colder episodes due to temperature inversions in lower areas.