The international rating agency Moody's has released a report detailing key points of Donald Trump's second term. The report highlights significant trade deficits, particularly with China, which reached nearly $300 billion in 2023. Mexico follows with a deficit of over $150 billion.
Vietnam ranks third with over $100 billion, followed by Germany, Japan, Canada, Ireland, South Korea, Taiwan, Italy, India, Thailand, and Malaysia.
According to the report, Mexico is the largest supplier of goods to the U.S., holding 15.4% of the market share, followed by China at 13.9%, and Canada at 13.7%. Colombia was not included in the list.
The report indicates that while China has lost market share in the U.S., the Asia-Pacific region continues to be a significant player in U.S. trade, with imports from Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines increasing over the past decade.
Moody's projects that Trump's policies will increase the federal budget deficit due to interest payments and the extension of the Jobs and Tax Cuts Act. The agency warns that the U.S. economy could suffer if the tax cuts from this law expire.
The report anticipates a potential 20% increase in tariffs on China and Hong Kong, with some products facing tariffs as high as 60%. Vietnam may also see tariffs nearing 10%, while Mexico could experience similar increases on various products.
In terms of immigration, Moody's estimates there could be 500,000 deportations annually. Regarding taxation and spending, it forecasts a reduction in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, alongside the extension of the Jobs and Tax Cuts Act.