On December 29, 2024, James Appathurai, NATO's Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Innovations, Hybrid and Cyber Attacks, warned of the potential for significant casualties resulting from Russian hybrid attacks in Europe. In an interview with Sky News, he indicated that dozens of such incidents have been recorded, with estimates suggesting up to 100 attacks, many of which were thwarted.
Appathurai attributed the increase in hybrid assaults to the Kremlin's response to Western support for Ukraine. He emphasized that NATO member states must clearly communicate the thresholds for hostile actions that could trigger a collective response, including military action.
He likened the current situation to the 'boiling frog' analogy, noting that NATO countries have become desensitized to threats that would have been considered unacceptable just five years ago. The official highlighted a rise in kinetic attacks, such as damage to underwater cables and arson, particularly since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Concerns were raised about the possibility of a large-scale attack leading to significant human or economic losses. NATO is currently working on updating its strategy, last revised in 2015, to address the evolving nature of hybrid warfare, with plans to be finalized at the NATO summit in 2025.
In related developments, Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian President's Office, urged NATO and European nations to consider the risks posed by hybrid threats at their borders. He warned that disguised North Korean soldiers or Iranian proxies could emerge as threats if Russia is not contained.