The ongoing UN Climate Summit (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, is approaching critical negotiations as nations strive to finalize a closing agreement. The re-election of Donald Trump in the United States has raised concerns about a potential leadership vacuum in international climate policy, with China positioned to fill this gap.
Trump has indicated intentions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, prompting calls for China to enhance its role in global climate efforts. Analysts suggest that China, as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-largest economy, must establish more ambitious targets for emissions reduction and engage in international climate financing.
The summit's primary objective is to set a new financial goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), aimed at assisting developing countries in combating climate change. Economists estimate that poorer nations will require at least $1 trillion annually by the end of the decade to reduce emissions and address extreme weather impacts.
Developed countries, historically responsible for the majority of emissions, are expected to contribute to this fund. However, delegates from the US, EU, and several developing nations argue that wealthier emerging economies, including China and Gulf states, should also contribute. Despite being a major economy, China is still classified as a developing country by the UN.
Rizwana Hasan, chief negotiator for Bangladesh’s transitional government, emphasized that major emitters like China and India should also contribute to climate financing. Chinese representatives at COP29, however, reiterated their preference for voluntary participation in climate funding.
Since 2016, China claims to have allocated approximately $24.5 billion for climate financing and has made significant investments in renewable energy, while simultaneously expanding coal power. Experts note that while China is not formally recognized as a contributor to international climate finance, it is already financing numerous projects abroad.
With China responsible for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, its commitment to reducing emissions is crucial for achieving global climate targets. The nation currently produces roughly double the emissions of the US and accounts for 90% of the global increase in CO2 since 2015.
Despite being a leader in renewable energy investments, China ranks only 55th among 67 countries in the Climate Change Performance Index, reflecting insufficient climate goals and continued dependence on fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency reported record-high coal production in China in 2023.
To limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are necessary by 2030. Analysts express hope that China will propose substantial emission reduction targets during the summit, given its rapid expansion of renewable energy.