SINGAPORE - A recent study indicates that climate change has exacerbated an unprecedented series of six storms in the Philippines, resulting in over 170 fatalities between October and November 2024. The report, published on December 13, highlights the impact of these weather events, which included five typhoons and one tropical storm, displacing 1.4 million individuals and causing extensive damage to infrastructure, homes, and agriculture. Initial economic loss estimates approach US$500 million.
The analysis conducted by World Weather Attribution (WWA), a global scientific collaboration, reveals that the frequency of Category 3 to 5 typhoons has increased, attributed to rising fossil fuel emissions that are altering climatic conditions. Researchers from the Philippines, the UK, and the Netherlands determined that climate change has nearly doubled the likelihood of the atmospheric conditions conducive to typhoon formation, such as elevated sea surface temperatures and humidity.
Computer models suggest a 25 percent increase in the probability of experiencing at least three Category 3 to 5 typhoons annually in the Philippines. Dr. Ben Clarke from Imperial College London emphasized that the recent surge in typhoon activity is linked to warming climate conditions, which are expected to persist.
In a related report, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service announced on December 9 that 2024 is projected to be the warmest year on record, with high temperatures likely extending into early 2025. The oceans have absorbed approximately 90 percent of the excess heat from human activities, leading to increased sea surface temperatures, which fuel stronger storms.
November 2024 marked an unusual spike in storm activity, with four named storms occurring simultaneously in the Pacific for the first time since 1951. The storms made landfall on Luzon, the Philippines' most populous island, with Tropical Storm Trami causing significant rainfall and fatalities in October, followed by Super Typhoon Kong-Rey and Typhoon Xinying, which led to further evacuations and destruction.
WWA has conducted over 90 studies examining the influence of climate change on extreme weather phenomena, consistently linking individual events to climate change effects. A previous analysis following Hurricane Milton in Florida indicated that global warming intensified the storm's wind speeds and rainfall.