A groundbreaking study from the University of Bern and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution reveals that the North Atlantic ocean circulation, including the Gulf Stream, has not weakened over the past 60 years, contradicting prior assumptions.
This research, led by Prof. Dr. Jens Terhaar, utilized 24 Earth system models and heat flow observations to assess the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The study found no evidence of a weakening AMOC from 1963 to 2017, despite significant variability.
The findings suggest that previous studies claiming a decline in Atlantic circulation may need reevaluation. However, Terhaar cautions that while the AMOC remains stable, climate change will likely weaken it in the future, though the extent and consequences remain uncertain.
This new approach, which focuses on air-sea heat flow anomalies rather than sea surface temperature, provides a more robust reconstruction of the AMOC's strength. Despite this, uncertainties remain regarding the influence of freshwater influx from melting ice sheets.
Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of continued research on ocean circulation and its implications for climate change.