On January 6, 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte outlined the alliance's priorities for 2025 in a speech that underscored the increasing proximity of conflict to NATO's borders. Rutte emphasized the urgency of bolstering defense budgets across Europe to enhance security and support Ukraine against Russian aggression.
Rutte noted that it takes just one day to reach Ukraine from Brussels, highlighting the immediate threat posed by Russian bombs and Iranian drones. He argued for public support for increased government spending on defense, indicating that European NATO members must prepare for a potential shift in U.S. leadership and expectations.
In light of the unpredictable nature of the incoming U.S. administration, European nations have committed to meeting the NATO guideline of spending 2% of their GDP on defense. There are discussions about potentially raising this target to 3% or even 4% as European allies seek to present favorable terms to the U.S. under President Trump.
Rutte stated that consultations among allies are necessary to determine the new spending levels, which will exceed 2%. Experts predict that Trump will likely advocate for a 4% target, placing European allies in a position to negotiate beneficial agreements.
European NATO members face significant challenges in enhancing their defense capabilities, particularly in intelligence and surveillance. NATO plans to conduct its largest military exercises since the Cold War in 2024 and is reviewing its hybrid warfare strategy amid rising sabotage activities attributed to Russia.
Germany has announced plans to send 5,000 troops to Lithuania by 2027, reflecting a commitment to bolster NATO's eastern flank. However, experts caution that it may take over a decade for European nations to develop the necessary capabilities without relying heavily on U.S. support.
As the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches in February, European leaders reaffirm their support for Kyiv. However, concerns about U.S. aid continuity have led to hesitancy among wealthier European nations regarding their commitments to Ukraine.
The issue of Ukraine's NATO membership remains contentious, with European allies generally supportive but wary of potential U.S. opposition under a Trump administration. The future of Ukraine's NATO aspirations hinges on the evolving dynamics within the alliance and the stance of the incoming U.S. leadership.