The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in its report published on 2 September 2026 stated that the planet is highly likely to exceed the warming threshold of 1,5°C above pre-industrial levels within the coming years.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, temperatures will rise to about 1,8°C before starting to decline. To date, the world has already warmed by 1,3–1,4°C.
The report came out as leaders of Pacific island states gathered for a forum in Palau. For them, these are not abstract figures.
The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which ten years ago secured the inclusion of the 1,5°C goal in the Paris Agreement, said the world is being "pushed beyond its limits." The goal cannot simply be "postponed or forgotten."
"The 1,5°C goal is not an arbitrary target that countries can dismiss," the alliance stressed, recalling the legal obligations of states confirmed by the International Court of Justice.
AOSIS's lead climate negotiator Anne Rasmussen urged an urgent phase-out of fossil fuels and to "deploy all available solutions to rapidly cut emissions."
UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted that the current summer with its "scorching heat, raging wildfires, and deadly floods" is a warning of what lies ahead.
The UNEP report effectively shifts focus from preventing overshoot to managing it: minimizing the magnitude and duration of the "overshoot" and returning temperatures below 1,5°C as quickly as possible.
But how quickly can this be achieved if even the most ambitious plans do not yet provide the necessary pace of emissions reductions?
Vulnerable countries insist: the goal cannot be abandoned. Their future depends on it.
