China is currently on track to slash its greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2035 relative to its 2023 peak, according to a new analysis by BloombergNEF. This projection significantly outperforms Beijing’s previous official guidance, which targeted a reduction of only 7% to 10% by 2035.
The report's authors note that this outcome reflects an acceleration of the country's energy transition. Amid rising fossil fuel prices and global geopolitical instability, China—like other major energy importers—is increasingly betting on renewable energy sources.
According to BloombergNEF's forecast, China's greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by approximately 50% by 2050. At the same time, analysts emphasize that this may still be insufficient to keep global warming within 2 degrees, even though the trajectory is already significantly improved compared to previous estimates. The report also asserts that a "credible" path still exists to limit the peak temperature rise to 1.81°C.
The report was released against a backdrop of surging fossil fuel prices, which have intensified due to the consequences of the war with Iran. Bloomberg notes that, in the face of this geopolitical instability, energy-importing nations are accelerating their transition to renewable energy.
