Astronomers have ruled out any possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032. However, NASA's latest assessments indicate a 3.8% probability of this space rock colliding with the Moon on December 22, 2032. This figure is an increase from the 1.7% reported in February.
Observations from ground-based telescopes and the James Webb Space Telescope have refined the understanding of the asteroid's trajectory, reducing uncertainties about its position as its orbit intersects with those of Earth and the Moon.
Initially, the potential for an Earth collision in 2032 was estimated at 2.3%, reflecting uncertainties in YR4's orbit. Subsequent observations led to the elimination of any Earth impact risk. A similar trend may occur with the lunar impact probability as further data is collected. The Webb telescope is scheduled to conduct further observations of YR4 in late April or early May.
Former NASA astronaut Ed Lu suggests that if the asteroid were to collide with the Moon, the event could produce a significant visual display. The asteroid, estimated to be between 174 and 220 feet wide, could create a crater as wide as 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) if it impacts the Moon.