Great Blue Hole Study: Caribbean Hurricanes Could Increase Dramatically by 2100

A recent study analyzing sediment cores from Belize's Great Blue Hole indicates a significant increase in Caribbean tropical cyclone frequency. Scientists from Goethe University Frankfurt examined a 30-meter sediment core, revealing a record of 574 storms over the past 5,700 years. Notably, nine storms were recorded in the last two decades alone. The study, published in the journal *Geology* on March 14, 2025, suggests that approximately 45 tropical cyclones could impact the region before the end of the 21st century. This projection significantly exceeds historical averages. Researchers attribute this potential surge to factors including rising global sea surface temperatures caused by climate change and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ influences storm formation areas and paths in the Atlantic. The findings highlight the urgent need for Caribbean coastal communities to prepare for more frequent and intense weather events. The Great Blue Hole, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, provides valuable insights into long-term storm patterns, serving as a natural archive of climate history.