On December 14, 2024, Georgia will hold presidential elections under extraordinary circumstances marked by escalating tensions. Mass protests have been occurring daily for the past two weeks, with authorities responding with violence.
The crisis stems from a conflict between the opposition and the ruling party, Georgian Dream. It began following parliamentary elections in October, which escalated when the government announced a delay in EU membership negotiations until 2028.
Recent constitutional reforms have further exacerbated the crisis. In 2017, the Georgian Dream party adopted changes that altered the presidential election process, transforming the country into a parliamentary republic with limited presidential powers.
The upcoming elections will be the first under new rules, where the president will be elected by an electoral college of 300 members, including 150 parliamentary representatives and 150 regional delegates. Given the Georgian Dream's majority in parliament and its strong regional influence, the opposition's candidate faces significant challenges.
The opposition is boycotting both the newly elected parliament and the presidential elections, leaving the ruling party as the sole proposer of a presidential candidate. The Georgian Dream secured 89 out of 150 parliamentary seats in the last elections, marred by numerous irregularities that prompted the EU to call for a re-vote.
Opposition claims of widespread electoral fraud have led to their refusal to participate in parliament. President Salome Zurabishvili has also rejected the election results, asserting her position as the only legitimate state representative in Georgia, vowing to remain in office until new parliamentary elections are held.
Political analyst Geli Vasadze has stated that the upcoming presidential elections lack legitimacy, questioning how elections can occur when the parliament is deemed illegitimate. He noted that both he and part of the opposition have filed a complaint with the Constitutional Court regarding electoral fraud.
The ruling party has nominated Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former football player and parliament member from the loyal People's Power party, as its presidential candidate. Civil society representatives criticize him for his role in the controversial Foreign Influence Law, which sparked significant protests and worsened Georgia's relations with Western nations.
Kavelashvili has accused the opposition of being under the influence of 'U.S. Congress representatives,' allegedly aiming to incite a 'revolution' similar to that in Ukraine.
Amid these tensions, the Georgian Dream has warned President Zurabishvili to vacate the presidential palace in Tbilisi by December 29, the date set for the inauguration of the new president. A train adorned with decorated carriages has been placed in front of the Orbeliani Palace, the official presidential residence, to which Zurabishvili remarked, 'They have placed a train in front of the Orbeliani Palace; we will see who will take it away.'
The government appears to be apprehensive about potential new protests. On December 10, the State Security Service announced that 'organizers of criminal activities' intend to disrupt the presidential elections on December 14 and prevent the election of a new president. They claimed that the plan involves escalating tensions to the point of 'two to three fatalities' to attribute 'murders' to the authorities and further incite protest.