Anti-government protests are planned in over 50 cities and towns across Slovakia on Friday, fueled by Prime Minister Robert Fico's pro-Russian stance and his recent visit to Moscow in December. The protests are part of a growing wave of discontent following Fico's handshake with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which has raised concerns about Slovakia's commitment to the EU and NATO.
Fico's pro-Russian position has further fueled the current crisis within Slovakia's governing coalition, with many fearing that he intends to steer the country towards the East. The government's policies, perceived by many as undermining democratic values and damaging relations with Ukraine, have also contributed to the unrest.
Fico, who was ousted from his third term as Prime Minister in 2018 due to massive protests, has attempted to bolster support for his left-wing Smer party by employing populist and pro-Russian rhetoric. However, this strategy has alienated moderate voters, prompting him to appeal to the country's radical electorate.
Despite facing mounting pressure, Fico has sought to intimidate his critics and unruly coalition partners by dismissing opposition calls for a vote of no confidence as a foreign-orchestrated coup attempt. He has further alarmed pro-EU factions in Slovakia by announcing plans to enshrine anti-EU and anti-LGBTQ+ provisions in the Constitution.
Analysts suggest that Fico's intimidation tactics may not deter Slovaks from taking to the streets on Friday. Over 100,000 people across the country protested on January 24 under the banner "Slovakia is Europe." However, it remains unclear whether Fico will be able to maintain control over his coalition partners, Hlas and SNS, which have shown signs of dissent.
Months of political turmoil have led to dysfunction and infighting over key appointments, while foreign policy disputes threaten the already fragile coalition majority. With the opposition pushing for a vote of no confidence, Fico's coalition appears increasingly unstable.
While analysts believe the government will likely survive for now, the Prime Minister's increasingly extreme behavior has alienated moderate voters, some of whom have stated they will no longer support him if he jeopardizes Slovakia's membership in the EU or NATO.
Fico's unpredictable conduct poses a further threat to the government's stability. Critics condemn his escalating aggression and paranoia, as well as his persistent promotion of conspiracy theories. Over 100 psychiatrists and psychologists signed an open letter last month expressing concern over Fico's mental health following an assassination attempt against him last May.
Fico has alleged that the opposition orchestrated the assassination attempt and is now trying to politically eliminate him. This has led many to doubt his ability to hold the government together in the long term.
While the future remains uncertain, many believe snap elections are inevitable. The current government majority is fragile and unlikely to survive for the remaining two and a half years of its term.
Fico's pro-Moscow orientation is seen by some as a plea for support in the upcoming election campaign, similar to the apparent backing enjoyed by pro-Russian candidates in recent elections in Romania and Moldova.
Simecka's PS party currently leads polls with 23% of the vote, while Fico's Smer party is losing popularity. This suggests that opposition parties may be able to secure enough votes to form a new government.
If elections are ultimately held in Slovakia, Hlas is likely to play a key role in forming the new government, as it did in 2023. However, Hlas lacks a clear agenda, with some factions advocating for progressive policies while others resemble a rebranded version of Smer.
While the opposition could attempt to persuade Hlas to switch sides to improve its image both domestically and internationally, analysts believe this is unlikely. The party had the opportunity to do so after the last election but ultimately chose to align with Fico.
The current situation leaves Slovakia trapped in political instability, with a bleak outlook for the immediate future. Fico's coalition is increasingly incapable of governing but unwilling to relinquish power, while extreme social and political polarization continues to fuel the risk of protests.