On November 8, 2024, there are substantial chances of intense Class X solar flares erupting on the Sun. These solar eruptions may be accompanied by powerful coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can significantly impact Earth. Such events are responsible for geomagnetic storms caused by the interaction of solar wind emitted by the Sun with Earth's magnetic field. This flow of electrically charged particles, or plasma, can severely damage electrical grids, satellites, internet connections, and radio communications through induced currents.
The current risk of strong Class X flares was communicated by the specialized portal Spaceweather.com, citing data from the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Estimates indicate a 35 percent probability of intense solar eruptions occurring today. The presence of three large sunspots on the Sun with mixed polarity magnetic fields of Delta class is a contributing factor, as these are susceptible to explosive magnetic reconnection.
Sunspots are darker and cooler regions on the Sun where magnetic fields trap heat deeper within the star. They are characterized by turbulent magnetic fields that can disconnect and reconnect rapidly through a process called reconnection. When this occurs, an immense amount of energy is released, comparable to the simultaneous explosion of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of nuclear bombs. These solar flares can also trigger the release of solar material into deep space. The faster and more energetic the solar wind, the higher the likelihood of severe geomagnetic storms on Earth.
The solar activity forecast for today, November 8, 2024, is influenced by the magnetic fields of the three large sunspots AR3889, AR3883, and AR3886, located in the Sun's equatorial region. The latter two are directed towards Earth. Solar eruptions are classified into five categories: A, B, C, M, and X, with Class X being the most energetic. Each class represents a tenfold increase in power, with the last category having no defined limit. To date, the most powerful flare ever recorded was a Class X 45 event in 2003; the strongest flare of the current solar cycle (25) was a Class X 9.1 event that occurred in early October. Shortly after, intense geomagnetic storms were recorded on October 10 and 11, accompanied by auroras at mid-latitudes, including Italy. Consequently, if a violent Class X flare with CME occurs today, polar auroras may reappear in Italy in the coming days, as it takes several days for the flow of charged energetic particles to impact Earth's magnetosphere, leading to solar storms and associated optical phenomena.