On November 4, 2024, Tropical Depression Eighteen developed in the Caribbean, with forecasts indicating it may strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael later today, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system is projected to evolve into a hurricane by Tuesday evening as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico.
Heavy rainfall is anticipated to affect Florida and surrounding regions in the Southeast United States later this week. Conditions at sea are expected to be hazardous, with large waves and a heightened risk of rip currents along Florida's coastline.
The storm is likely to track northwest towards Alabama, Louisiana, or Texas after impacting Jamaica and Cuba. However, a shift in the jet stream could alter its course, potentially bringing it closer to South Florida.
Rainfall amounts over Jamaica and parts of Cuba could reach between 3 to 6 inches, with localized areas receiving up to 9 inches, raising concerns about flooding and mudslides. The Cayman Islands are under a hurricane watch, while Jamaica has issued a tropical storm warning.
As of 10 a.m. EST, the depression was located at latitude 15.2 North and longitude 76.9 West, moving north at approximately 9 mph. The system is expected to approach Jamaica tonight, move near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and reach Cuba by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are currently near 35 mph, with further strengthening expected. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
Hurricane conditions are anticipated in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected in Jamaica this evening and potentially in central Cuba by Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding may occur in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
The Atlantic hurricane season continues until November 30, with the current storm representing a significant weather event for the region.