In a groundbreaking observation, scientists have reported that greenhouse gas concentrations have surged to unprecedented levels in 2024, marking the fastest annual increase since long-term measurements began at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, in 1958. The recorded rise of 3.58 parts per million (ppm) surpassed the Met Office's forecast of 2.84 ppm, with satellite measurements also indicating significant global increases.
This alarming trend is attributed to record emissions from fossil fuel combustion, compounded by natural carbon sinks like tropical forests absorbing less carbon and increased wildfire activity. These changes are closely linked to the warm weather associated with the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific, which raises global temperatures and intensifies climate change impacts.
The Met Office, which has been issuing carbon dioxide forecasts since 2016, predicts that increases between 2024 and 2025 will be less pronounced, estimating approximately 2.26 ppm. However, even this slower growth is deemed too rapid to align with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) targets for limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
To achieve these goals, significant reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are essential, necessitating urgent international action.