The Arctic region has emerged as a pivotal area in global geopolitics, offering unprecedented economic opportunities. The Arctic states include Canada, Denmark (with Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States. The Arctic issue is becoming increasingly strategic, necessitating a new approach to intelligence activities.
Emanuela Somalvico, director of the Arctic Intelligence Observatory and deputy director of the Mediterranean University’s Intelligence training course, emphasizes the escalating competition for Arctic supremacy. In her book, Prospettiva Artico, Nuove sfide per l'Intelligence (2024), she notes that climate change is transforming the region's geography, facilitating access to valuable resources such as rare earths, minerals, gas, and oil. This transformation also opens new maritime trade routes and increases tourism, affecting the global economy.
The Arctic’s fishing industry is significant, with the region already being a crucial fishing ground for China, the world’s largest fish importer. The Arctic is rich in resources, becoming essential for Europe’s energy needs and providing greater independence regarding strategic raw materials for ecological and digital transitions. The European strategy for the Arctic aims for a comprehensive approach, integrating maritime policy and security while safeguarding the region's delicate environment.
Infrastructure development is vital for projects in both terrestrial and maritime polar areas, requiring substantial investments. However, these significant changes risk turning the Arctic into a conflict zone. Potential military confrontations over territorial and maritime control may arise from both state and non-state actors engaging in low-intensity activities.
In October 2023, Admiral Rob Bauer, head of NATO's Military Committee, warned of possible military conflicts in the Arctic during the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik. He highlighted the need for NATO to prepare for unforeseen events. The Russian Federation has resumed militarization of its Arctic territories, while the U.S. military has developed a strategic plan to regain Arctic dominance, calling for renewed commitment from NATO allies in the 'High North'. The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO indicates shifting balances of power.
Furthermore, the 'ICE Pact' (Icebreaker Collaboration Effort) signed in July 2024 by the United States, Canada, and Finland aims at joint development and construction of new icebreaker units, crucial for maintaining a consistent presence in northern waters. Canada, the second-largest Arctic nation, published a new Arctic Foreign Policy in December 2024, aiming to position itself as a key player in international discussions regarding the Arctic's growing significance.
The book also outlines potential hybrid threats, expanding the gray area where industrial espionage and organized crime may operate, increasing the risks of money laundering and economic infiltration in the Arctic. Given this complex and evolving situation, the role of intelligence is critical in analyzing possible scenarios and assessing their implications for the national interests of Arctic states and the safety of Arctic populations.
Italy, a permanent observer of the Arctic Council since 2013, has a historical background in polar exploration and can play a significant role in enhancing knowledge to intercept and prevent challenges and opportunities in the Arctic's new perspective.