The Syrian economy has contracted by 85% over nearly 14 years of civil war, severely damaging infrastructure and causing hyperinflation. Recovery will require global support.
In 2011, Syria's economy was valued at $67.5 billion, ranking 68th globally. By last year, it plummeted to $9 billion, ranking 129th, according to World Bank estimates. This economic decline places Syria alongside nations such as Chad and Palestine.
Over the course of the conflict, international sanctions and an exodus of 4.82 million people—over one-fifth of the population—have further devastated the country, which is now among the poorest in the Middle East.
As of December, around seven million Syrians, over 30% of the population, are internally displaced, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
The war has destroyed essential infrastructure, leading to permanent damage to electricity, transportation, and healthcare systems. Cities like Aleppo, Raqqa, and Homs have experienced extensive destruction.
The conflict has caused significant devaluation of the Syrian pound, drastically reducing purchasing power. Last year, Syria faced hyperinflation, with the consumer price index doubling compared to the previous year, according to the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR).
SCPR reports that over half of the Syrian population lives in extreme poverty, unable to meet basic food needs. The two main economic pillars—oil and agriculture—have been devastated. Oil exports, which contributed about 25% of government revenue in 2010, have plummeted due to loss of control over oil fields to rebel groups, including ISIS and Kurdish forces.
International sanctions have severely restricted the government’s ability to export oil, leading to a reliance on imports from Iran. Before any reconstruction efforts can begin, clarity regarding Syria's future governance is essential.
Observers warn that it could take nearly a decade for Syria to return to its 2011 GDP levels and two decades for full reconstruction. Political instability may further deteriorate the situation.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, has expressed intentions to establish a new government. However, stringent international sanctions remain in place against Syria and HTS, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the UN.
Calls have emerged for lifting or easing sanctions on HTS, but such changes may take weeks or months. Delaney Simon of the International Crisis Group noted that Syria is one of the most sanctioned countries globally, stating that maintaining these restrictions is detrimental to recovery efforts.
On December 8, US President Joe Biden warned of a period of 'risk and uncertainty' for Syria, affirming US support in collaboration with all Syrian groups, including UN-led processes.
Meanwhile, elected President Donald Trump suggested that Washington should disengage. Reports indicate that the Biden administration is contemplating removing HTS from the terrorist list, recognizing its potential role in Syria's future.
European Union spokesperson Anouar El Anouni stated that Brussels is not currently engaging with HTS and will assess their actions alongside their words. A priority in Syria's reconstruction is the eastern Deir el-Zour region, which holds approximately 40% of Syria's oil reserves.
HTS leader Mohammed al-Jolani has been negotiating with former Assad officials regarding power transition arrangements. Following a national curfew, most stores remained closed on December 9, but banks reopened on December 10, with employees returning to work. The Syrian pound will continue to be used.
The Ministry of Oil has instructed all employees in the sector to return to work starting December 10, assuring safety measures. UN aid chief Tom Fletcher stated that the UN will respond to humanitarian needs as much as possible.
As some European nations pause asylum claims for Syrian nationals, the UNHCR has called for 'patience and vigilance' regarding refugee returns. Austria is preparing a 'orderly repatriation and deportation program' for Syrian citizens.