Economic Turmoil in Asia Following Trump's Election Victory and Currency Weaknesses

Vietnam's State Bank has set the reference rate for the dong at a historic low of 24,283 per dollar on November 7, 2024, marking the weakest level since at least 2005. The dong's value remained stable at 25,402 per dollar, just 0.3% shy of a record low, as the strengthening dollar continues to impact emerging markets.

In India, the rupee fell to a lifetime low of 84.29 against the dollar, surpassing the previous record of 84.28 set just a day earlier. Analysts attribute this decline to expectations that the election of Donald Trump will boost the dollar, driven by anticipated U.S. economic growth from tax cuts and deregulation.

Trump's victory is also expected to influence capital flows in Asia, with market analysts predicting a shift of funds towards India and Japan while assessing the risks associated with Chinese assets. Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese goods have raised concerns, leading Morgan Stanley to favor investments in Indian and Japanese equities over Chinese markets.

The outcome of the U.S. election has created uncertainties for the Bank of Japan, as the yen has weakened significantly. A former BOJ executive noted that continued depreciation of the yen could prompt the bank to consider a rate hike in the near future, reflecting the global financial ramifications of the election results.

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