January 16, 2025 - SAN DIEGO - A recent study indicates that the Sun may provide advance warnings before significant solar flares, potentially allowing for crucial hours of preparation for their impacts on Earth. Researchers analyzed data from over 50 major solar flares and identified changes in the Sun's outer atmosphere that begin 2-3 hours prior to a flare.
Solar flares, which are intense bursts of radiation, can disrupt satellite operations, radio communications, and even cause power grid failures. Currently, predicting the exact timing and location of these events remains challenging.
Emily Mason, a heliophysicist at Predictive Sciences Inc., stated, "We found that some of the extreme ultraviolet light above active regions flickers erratically for a few hours before a solar flare." This research, published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, utilized data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.
The study focused on coronal loops, massive arches of super-heated gas that rise above the Sun's surface. These loops, which can extend millions of miles, are often the origin points for solar flares. The team examined 53 significant flares occurring from 2011 to 2022, particularly those near the Sun's edge.
The researchers observed a pattern: in the 2-3 hours before a flare, coronal loops exhibited more variable and chaotic behavior, particularly in specific wavelengths of light. This variability suggests increasing instability in the magnetic fields leading up to a flare.
Notably, the study found that certain types of flares provided stronger advance warning signals. Flares confined to the Sun's atmosphere were three times more likely to show distinct spikes in emissions from compact groups of loops.
Presented at the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society, these findings could enhance the reliability of flare prediction methods, paving the way for improved monitoring of solar activity.