India is anticipating a milder winter season with a decrease in cold wave occurrences, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecast indicates above-normal minimum temperatures for the period from December 2024 to February 2025.
This projection follows a notably warm November, which recorded the second highest average maximum temperature since 1901, reaching 29.37 degrees Celsius, surpassing the normal of 28.75 degrees.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the IMD's director general, stated that most regions in the country are expected to experience higher than usual minimum temperatures. However, areas in southern Peninsular India may see temperatures aligning with or falling below the seasonal average.
Typically, the cold core zone, which includes northwest, central, eastern, and northeastern India, experiences five to six cold wave days during winter. This year, a reduction of two to four cold wave days is anticipated.
The IMD defines a cold wave as occurring when the minimum temperature is below the 10th percentile of the daily climatological value and the climatological daily minimum temperature is below 15 degrees Celsius, sustained over three consecutive days.
The absence of western disturbances has been identified as a contributing factor to the unusually warm November.