LONDON -- In September 2024, severe flooding impacted several regions across Europe, resulting in extensive damage and disruption. The intense rainfall, predicted by advanced forecasting systems utilizing artificial intelligence, caught many off guard despite accurate warnings.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reported that their predictions indicated rainfall amounts of 300-400 millimeters (11.8-15.7 inches) in affected areas, which materialized as forecasted. The ECMWF's AI/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS) has been operational since January, providing multiple rapid predictions for significant weather events.
Experts noted that while AI has enhanced the precision of weather forecasting, challenges remain in effectively communicating risks to the public. Shruti Nath, a postdoctoral research assistant at Oxford University, emphasized the importance of conveying the severity of potential events to encourage proactive measures.
Moreover, the European Environment Agency has warned that extreme weather events, including heatwaves and floods, are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change. Janez Lenarčič, the European commissioner for crisis management, stated that such disasters are no longer anomalies but rather an expected reality.
In light of these events, experts advocate for increased investment in both advanced forecasting technologies and physical infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of future disasters.