Global insolvencies are projected to increase by 7% in 2025, largely due to escalating trade conflicts and heightened US tariffs. A recent study by Allianz Trade highlights the economic impact of US tariff policies, particularly those enacted under Donald Trump's administration.
The US economy is expected to see a 16% rise in insolvencies, exceeding previous estimates by five percentage points. Western Europe faces a worsening business environment, with a projected 5% increase in insolvencies. Germany is anticipated to experience an 11% surge in corporate bankruptcies.
High US tariffs are straining international supply chains and domestic economies. Potential export losses could reach $480 billion, intensifying uncertainty for businesses. Sectors such as automotive, textiles, and retail, heavily reliant on exports, are particularly vulnerable.
A slight easing may occur by year-end if bilateral agreements reduce US tariffs from 25.5% to around 10.2%. However, uncertainty remains high, along with the risk of further economic disruptions. A recently approved financial package for infrastructure and defense in Germany may mitigate some negative effects.
Despite this, the forecast for corporate bankruptcies in Germany is now one percentage point higher than previously anticipated. The global community should closely monitor trade policy developments and their impact on economic stability.