Panama's contemporary democracy was shaped by the US invasion in the late 1980s. The 1990s saw a new social order focused on the Canal's reversion and expansion. After 35 years, this order faces a challenge from Trump's ambition to control the Canal.
The US invasion, "Operation Just Cause," ousted Noriega in 1989. In 1990, a civilian government supported by the White House replaced the military leadership. The Canal's reversion occurred ten years after democratic institutionalization. In 2006, expansion works were approved, leading to growth and Panama's nickname as the "Singapore of Latin America."
Since the 2024 elections, the Panamanian government has faced major challenges. These challenges exist within a new Latin American geopolitics. The US is now using hard power in its relationships with other nations.
Domestically, Panama had to reform its pension system due to a lack of contributors. This reform caused controversy and a general strike. President Mulino also faces the issue of former President Ricardo Martinelli, who was disqualified due to corruption.
Martinelli received asylum in Colombia, making his influence difficult to assess. Another challenge is the Donoso mine, halted after a ruling. First Quantum met with Trump in December 2024 to seek mediation.
The mining company has paused international arbitrations for dialogue. The government is tempted to reopen the mine due to public finance issues. However, polls show over 60% of the population opposes reopening it.
The government also faces constant threats from Trump. Since his inauguration, he has expressed intentions to reclaim the Canal. He accuses China of controlling the interoceanic route.
These threats prompted Panama to abandon trade agreements with China. This included the Silk Road Pact and the processing of US deportees. Panama recently signed a controversial memorandum with the US.
Critics say it allows the US to install military bases and increase military presence. It also allegedly allows free passage for US ships through the Canal, violating neutrality treaties. Trump's threats continue despite this strategy.
Multilateralism and international law are necessary in this context. The Panama Canal is crucial for global trade and logistics. Over 80% of cargo transits by sea. Panama is central to the global economic order, and other nations should recognize this.