The International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and OPEC have adjusted their oil demand forecasts for 2025, reflecting concerns over escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. These revisions come as the global economy faces uncertainty due to tariff implementations and geopolitical factors.
IEA's Outlook
The IEA lowered its oil demand growth forecast to 730,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to the negative impact of trade tensions on the economic outlook. However, recent data led to a slight upward revision to 741,000 bpd. The agency anticipates further slowing in 2026, projecting growth of 690,000 bpd.
EIA's Projections
The EIA also reduced its demand growth forecast for 2025 to 900,000 bpd, a significant decrease from earlier estimates. The agency expects Brent crude prices to average $68 per barrel in 2025 and $61 per barrel in 2026.
OPEC's Stance
OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, estimating a rise of 1.3 million bpd each year. OPEC expects total world oil demand to average 105 million bpd in 2025, supported by air travel, road mobility, and industrial activities in non-OECD countries.
US-China Trade War Impact
President Trump's tariffs, including reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, have contributed to the revised forecasts. While tariffs were lowered in May, a 30% tariff on Chinese goods remains. These trade dynamics continue to influence oil market stability and economic forecasts.