Despite ongoing negotiations, a definitive agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine remains elusive in 2025. Western observers suggest that President Putin may be facing internal political obstacles to ending the war, even as his troops continue to make incremental gains in Ukrainian territory. The inflated arms industry, benefiting many Russians financially, further complicates the prospects for compromise.
Economic and Social Challenges
Economic expert Alexandra Prokopenko anticipates continued state demand will sustain the arms industry, regardless of the war's outcome. However, Russia expert Margarete Klein highlights the potential difficulties Putin may encounter in managing returning veterans.
Volunteers who earned significantly more than average during the war may struggle to adjust to poorly paid jobs upon their return. The risk exists that some veterans, potentially traumatized and prone to violence, could turn to crime, mirroring the experiences of veterans from the Afghanistan and Chechnya conflicts.
Military Objectives and Ceasefire Prospects
Despite these challenges, Russia appears intent on achieving its war aims, including control over the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. While a ceasefire remains a possibility, particularly with international mediation efforts, fundamental disagreements over territory and political alignment persist.