US Baking Industry Faces $454 Million Hit Due to New Tariffs

The U.S. baking industry anticipates up to $454 million in added costs this year. This is due to new tariffs on goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China. The American Bakers Association (ABA) issued this estimate.

These tariffs, ranging from 10% to 145%, affect essential ingredients, packaging, and equipment. Commercial bakers rely on these items daily.

Impact on Imports and Small Businesses

The ABA states that over half of all imports used by U.S. bakers originate from these three countries. Bakers imported nearly $1 billion in Canadian goods last year, including $193 million in ingredients. A 25% tariff would add $244 million in costs.

Mexico shipped $679 million worth of baking-related goods to the U.S. in 2024. A full 25% tariff could increase costs by $170 million. Chinese imports totaled $395 million in 2024, potentially reaching nearly $1 billion in 2025.

Small businesses like Uncle Jerry's Pretzels in Pennsylvania are particularly vulnerable. Co-owner Misty Skolnick stated that tariffs have forced them to rethink pricing and production.

Threats to Exports and Future Uncertainty

Retaliatory tariffs could also threaten U.S. bakery exports. Canada accounts for three times the U.S. bakery export volume of Mexico. New barriers could significantly reduce trade.

Some tariffs are currently paused, including the 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports under the USMCA. However, the possibility of reinstatement remains.

Skolnick is trying to remain calm and adapt to the situation. She stated they are waiting for the facts before implementing any major changes.