On December 6, 2024, a study published in the magazine Nature Sustainability highlighted the alarming rate of deforestation in Brazil's Cerrado biome, warning that continued environmental degradation could render agricultural practices economically unviable.
The research, a collaboration between the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and the American Woodwell Climate Research Center, revealed that the native vegetation cover in the Cerrado has plummeted from 127 million hectares to 95 million hectares over the past two decades, while agricultural land has doubled from 38 million hectares to 77 million hectares.
Using historical data and satellite imagery, the researchers employed artificial intelligence to isolate the effects of deforestation, disregarding other environmental factors such as El Niño and La Niña. The findings indicate that deforestation is exacerbating climate change in the region.
In February, another study published in Nature Communications noted that the Cerrado is experiencing severe impacts from global warming, with the region facing its most intense drought in 700 years. This has already affected agricultural output, as the Cerrado accounts for 63% of Brazil's agricultural production.
Data from the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA) shows that rainfall levels 50% below average led to a loss of 7.3 million tons of grains, primarily soybeans and corn, during the 2020/21 harvest. The 2023/24 harvest saw even greater losses, with a record decline of 11.9 million tons of soybeans and a 10% reduction in corn production, amounting to an estimated R$ 35 billion in losses.
The study indicates that as native vegetation decreases, crop failures are becoming more frequent, coinciding with diminishing rainfall. The correlation between deforestation and climate changes is direct, as removing vegetation alters local climate conditions immediately.
Researchers compared rainfall reductions in areas with native cover to those that have been deforested. From 1999 to 2019, areas with native vegetation experienced a decline of 29.1 millimeters of rain during the first harvest season and 9.2 millimeters during the second. In contrast, deforested areas saw much more significant drops of 90.5 millimeters and 109.1 millimeters, respectively.
Moreover, deforested regions experienced a delay of ten days in the onset of rainfall every two years, while areas with less than 20% vegetation loss did not show this delay.
The native vegetation of the Cerrado plays a crucial role in water retention and atmospheric moisture. Its removal drastically alters surface characteristics, affecting heat reflection and moisture release.
Despite the overwhelming evidence, some agricultural producers remain skeptical about the link between vegetation and rainfall formation, viewing such claims as unfounded theories propagated by environmentalists.
Experts stress the urgent need for effective anti-deforestation policies, as the agricultural sector stands to benefit significantly from reduced deforestation rates. However, many producers have yet to recognize this connection.
While the situation remains critical, some experts believe recovery is possible if immediate actions are taken to halt further deforestation and restore degraded areas. The Cerrado still retains over 50% of its native cover, and restoration efforts are essential for maintaining Brazil's biodiversity and ecological functions.
Ecologists emphasize that the first step towards recovery involves ceasing new agricultural expansions and initiating reforestation in heavily deforested regions. This could help reestablish the regional microclimate and mitigate ongoing agricultural losses.