On November 21, 2024, Argentina's country risk index reached 720 basis points, the lowest level in 68 months. This indicates that the country pays a premium of 7.20 points over U.S. Treasury bonds. The rise in Argentine bonds traded on Wall Street, increasing by 0.30% to 0.50%, suggests a potential further decline in the risk index.
The current figure of 720 basis points is just shy of the lowest record of 718 points set on March 1, 2019. The index has significantly decreased from 955 points at the beginning of November, marking a 26.8% drop in the month and a 62% decline over the year.
This positive trend is attributed to several factors, including optimistic expectations surrounding negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following a meeting between President Javier Milei and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva during the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. This meeting could lead to new funding for Argentina.
Additionally, a reported 1.2% rise in wholesale inflation indicates a continued deceleration in price increases. The government's fiscal adjustments have also contributed to this situation, resulting in a surplus in public accounts for ten consecutive months. Furthermore, the Central Bank has achieved 37 consecutive days of positive outcomes in currency market interventions, accumulating a favorable balance of $1.271 billion in November.