Recent studies in 2025 offer conflicting perspectives on the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial system of ocean currents regulating Earth's climate. While earlier research raised concerns about a potential collapse, new evidence suggests the AMOC might be more resilient than initially feared.
A study published in February 2025 by researchers at the Met Office and the University of Exeter indicates that an AMOC collapse this century is unlikely. Their modeling suggests the AMOC will withstand pressures from rising global temperatures and freshwater influx, with any weakening primarily driven by winds over the Southern Ocean. This aligns with the IPCC's assessment, which expresses medium confidence that the AMOC will not abruptly collapse within this century.
However, other scientists urge caution, emphasizing that the AMOC is still likely to weaken, presenting climate challenges for Europe and beyond. Further research is deemed necessary to fully understand the system and improve predictions. Experts convened in Brussels in February 2025 to review the AMOC, aiming to provide decision-makers with robust evidence for climate policies. A key milestone is a proposed expert meeting in late 2025, with a final report expected within 1.5 years.