Ocean Temperatures Surge: A Once-in-500-Year Event?

Between April 2023 and March 2024, ocean surface temperatures soared to record highs, exceeding previous records from 2015-2016 by approximately 0.25°C for over a year. Researchers at the University of Bern, led by Jens Terhaar, simulated this event and estimate it to be a once-in-500-year occurrence, given current warming trends. While not entirely unexpected under present climate conditions, the study emphasizes that such an anomaly would have been virtually impossible without the underlying trend of global warming. Scientists clarify that this temperature spike doesn't necessarily indicate an acceleration of climate change, but rather an extreme event that models can simulate. Most models predict ocean temperatures will return to pre-record levels by September 2025. However, failure to return to these levels could suggest an underestimation of climate sensitivity and a potentially greater future warming impact.