Global Economy Slows Amid Trade Tensions

Edited by: Olga Sukhina

New York, June 30, 2025 - The global economy faces significant headwinds from escalating trade tensions, particularly the US-China trade war, impacting growth forecasts worldwide. The most recent data reveals a slowdown, with global GDP growth projected at 2.2% for 2025, a decrease from 2.9% in 2024. (Source: Fitch Ratings' June 2025 Global Economic Outlook)

The United States sees a slight upward revision in its growth forecast to 1.5%, but faces persistent slowdown signs. China's growth forecast has been raised to 4.2%, while the Eurozone's forecast is up to 0.8%. The US Effective Tariff Rate is at 14.2%, with potential increases. (Source: Fitch Ratings' June 2025 Global Economic Outlook)

The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a 0.2% decline in global merchandise trade for 2025. The IMF has lowered the US growth forecast to 1.8% for 2025. The IMF also anticipates US inflation to rise to 3% in 2025 due to tariffs. (Source: Fitch Ratings' June 2025 Global Economic Outlook)

Sources

  • Zawya.com

  • WTO Forecasts Global Trade Decline as U.S.-China Tensions Escalate

  • 2025 stock market crash

  • IMF warns of rising US recession risk and defends Fed rate policy

  • Roaring tariffs: The global impact of the 2025 US trade war

  • Economic Research: Global Macro Update: Seismic Shift In U.S. Trade Policy Will Slow World Growth

Did you find an error or inaccuracy?

We will consider your comments as soon as possible.