US Consumer Confidence Plummets to Four-Year Low, Wall Street Eyes Weaker Earnings Despite Tech Stock Resilience

On Tuesday, Wall Street assessed the impact of weakening consumer spending on corporate earnings, even as tech stocks showed resilience. According to the Conference Board's latest survey, U.S. Consumer Confidence fell to 92.9 in March, the lowest since 2021. The Expectations Index dropped to 65.2, a 12-year low, signaling recessionary concerns. UBS Global Research suggests the S&P 500 could drop 8% to 5,300, with 12-month forward earnings growth potentially halving to 6%. Consumer discretionary stocks in the S&P 500 are down 9% year-to-date, contrasting with the overall index's 2% decline. Despite this, tech stocks led Wall Street indices higher, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.5%. Analysts still anticipate record-high profits, with the S&P 500 weighted average earnings per share estimated at $269.91 for 2025, a 10% increase from last year. However, the growing mismatch between earnings outlook and economic forecasts suggests a potential re-evaluation is needed.