France Sees Dramatic Rise in Centenarians, Study Explores Longevity Limits

A recent study highlights a significant surge in the number of centenarians, particularly in France, prompting investigations into the potential limits of human longevity. The International Database on Longevity (IDL), managed by the French National Institute for Demographic Studies (Ined), gathers validated data on individuals who lived to be 105 years or older across a dozen countries. France has experienced a thirtyfold increase in centenarians since 1970, with over 31,000 individuals aged 100+ as of January 1, 2024. Projections estimate over 200,000 centenarians by 2070 if current mortality trends continue. The IDL employs a rigorous validation process, verifying birth and death records to ensure accuracy, which is crucial due to the increased likelihood of errors with advanced age. Notably, women significantly outnumber men among centenarians, primarily due to higher male mortality rates throughout life. In 2020, there were approximately ten times more women than men who died at 105 or older. Researchers are utilizing IDL data to refine mortality risk estimations at very advanced ages, aiming to determine if there is a definitive limit to human lifespan and whether mortality rates plateau after 105.