The Caribbean region faces a complex economic landscape in 2025, marked by both opportunities and challenges. While tourism recovery and Guyana's oil-driven growth continue to be significant factors, increasing global economic volatility necessitates a recalibration of economic strategies.
Tourism-dependent economies are experiencing a recovery, with international tourist arrivals reaching an estimated 34.2 million in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) anticipates a further increase of 2% to 5% in overnight visitor arrivals in 2025, potentially reaching approximately 35 million. Cruise arrivals are also expected to grow by 5% to 7%, approaching 36 million visitors.
Guyana's economy continues to expand due to oil exploration and exportation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Guyana's GDP to grow by approximately 10% in 2025, driven by increased oil production and infrastructure spending. The addition of the ONE GUYANA FPSO unit is expected to further boost production.
Despite these positive trends, the World Bank forecasts a slower growth rate for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025, estimating a regional economic expansion of 2.1%. Factors contributing to this outlook include low investment, high debt, and a shifting external environment.
Several Caribbean nations have made strides in reducing their debt-to-GDP ratios through fiscal reforms. Jamaica transitioned from the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) to the Independent Fiscal Commission (IFC) in January 2025, aiming to strengthen fiscal transparency and responsibility.